enjoy!
[00:00:00] ,
[00:00:01] Welcome to the other construction podcast.
[00:00:04] Where Rudy's been talking and I've been plugging in and haven't heard of what he's saying, but
[00:00:08] we're late and we're going to cover some MLS.
[00:00:10] Yeah.
[00:00:11] We've been watching a little bit of this Dortmund match that's going on.
[00:00:16] And I'll be honest, Rudy, this one's got to talk to you about so I've been, I don't
[00:00:20] know how to call it like it feels like a slump.
[00:00:23] Okay.
[00:00:24] And so it's making me second guest markets because for the last couple, I would say
[00:00:28] so we've had outcomes of course, soccer scores.
[00:00:33] You fucking asshole.
[00:00:34] We've had outcomes that should have happened and actually have happened, but then we're
[00:00:39] taken away.
[00:00:40] So yeah, like if you make the wrong pick, that's fine.
[00:00:43] I've been wrong before.
[00:00:44] You know what I mean?
[00:00:45] Like just, just I missed that one.
[00:00:46] Like last night in hockey, we had a bet guys got shots on target, just doesn't or
[00:00:53] shots on goal in hockey, but two of the guys cover with no problem.
[00:00:57] One dude just decided he didn't want to shoot the puck all night.
[00:00:59] You know what I mean?
[00:01:00] Like I just, that was a bad call in my spot.
[00:01:02] But when you have totals that hit and they take goals away or shots on targets that
[00:01:05] are changed, players that get hurt or pulled, whatever.
[00:01:09] So I'm having a hard time, but the point is, is today we are going to fix that.
[00:01:13] We're going to pick live the plus six 90, which did hit last week.
[00:01:18] So that was cool.
[00:01:19] So even if you bet like six missing bets, you still, you still broke even on that
[00:01:23] one.
[00:01:24] Hopefully that wasn't what you did, but I'm feeling it today.
[00:01:29] We've got some stuff going.
[00:01:31] Yeah.
[00:01:32] And the Columbus crew are kind of in first place, not only in our hearts, but in
[00:01:38] the MLS technically in second place.
[00:01:41] But you know, what are you going to do when your game is so poorly ref that
[00:01:45] they have to get the CBA done?
[00:01:47] You got to, you know, take one from the team from time to time.
[00:01:50] So we'll, we'll give up one win.
[00:01:52] That's part of that's part of your frustration.
[00:01:55] Also, when we talked about this, part of the frustration is, is that these
[00:02:00] games often went as expected, but the reffing was so bad that it counteracted
[00:02:07] what, what was predicted and what should have happened and all that
[00:02:11] sort of thing.
[00:02:13] When somebody goes and messes up the stock market by shorting the stock
[00:02:19] because they know something secret, right?
[00:02:22] There's a, there's an element of like, oh, things didn't go the way that
[00:02:25] they were.
[00:02:26] And that stock fell the wrong way and you know all that sort of thing.
[00:02:29] And so that's what we're getting when you get bad reffing or what I
[00:02:33] would just call just insufficient reffing is what is maybe the best
[00:02:37] term to use what we had insufficient reffing.
[00:02:40] And so it's sort of like going to the stock market and having insufficient
[00:02:43] control of those stocks being sold and what's being going, been going on.
[00:02:48] So there's a little bit of frustration there, but hopefully things will
[00:02:51] turn back around here as our normal referees are put back on the field.
[00:02:56] We'll see the concave was a joke too.
[00:02:58] It wasn't even my, like I didn't have any money out or any of our teams,
[00:03:01] but I saw a couple games that were just, it was bad.
[00:03:04] We did actually have ours.
[00:03:06] Yeah, that was bad too.
[00:03:07] God damn it.
[00:03:08] Do we have to complain about that?
[00:03:09] Again.
[00:03:10] Okay.
[00:03:11] And how that dog shit that ref was.
[00:03:13] We had eight, eight total penalties and four, five cards.
[00:03:18] And at that point they had like 14 against us with zero cards.
[00:03:21] That's just not possible.
[00:03:23] Well, let's talk about something fun.
[00:03:24] Let's talk about how Miami plays the second place tied with us
[00:03:29] with 11 points.
[00:03:30] Miami plays the playoff Colorado Rapids.
[00:03:34] They are a playoff team currently.
[00:03:36] They are.
[00:03:37] Here's why I'm starting with this game.
[00:03:39] You got LA Galaxy up top, the only team in LA, the last undefeated
[00:03:44] team in the West, the only soccer club that has ever existed in
[00:03:49] the city of California at 13 goals, nine against.
[00:03:53] That's what we're looking for.
[00:03:54] At six matches played.
[00:03:55] We're looking for double digit on both sides.
[00:03:57] Portland, we hate them 11 and 11 through six.
[00:04:00] St. Louis 11 and 11 through six, right?
[00:04:03] That's what we want to see.
[00:04:04] But sneaking Colorado in here at eight, four and 10 against in six
[00:04:08] games is going against Miami who is 14 for and 10 against now.
[00:04:13] It's in seven games, but Miami gives up goals.
[00:04:15] Miami scores goals.
[00:04:17] And here's why I'm interested in this game.
[00:04:21] The long list of from messy all the way down through basically
[00:04:28] their whole they have an entire Miami has an entire squad
[00:04:32] questionable or listed out for this game.
[00:04:35] Yeah, including Luis Suarez.
[00:04:38] So true.
[00:04:39] I do want to say this just about Miami's defense.
[00:04:43] They have kind of spread it.
[00:04:45] They kind of have it kind of has been like lumped that their
[00:04:49] goals against our lumped because there was four goals in one
[00:04:53] game, so they have 10 against, but there was four in one game.
[00:04:57] That's that's almost half of their goals against one one one
[00:05:01] Blunder.
[00:05:02] And well, they just they just came up against Louis Morgan.
[00:05:06] I don't know if I'd call that a blunder.
[00:05:08] They just hadn't played anybody with a Louis Morgan yet.
[00:05:11] They played NYC FC FC FC but but Colorado has been sort of
[00:05:18] generously allowing gold spread throughout.
[00:05:22] So they're more they're more likely in my mind.
[00:05:27] Even though we've got one who's given up 10 and we've got one
[00:05:30] who's given up 11.
[00:05:32] Or we've got two teams that have given up 10.
[00:05:35] One of them gave up four in one game.
[00:05:37] And so I feel like Miami is actually better at defense
[00:05:41] than Colorado.
[00:05:43] And so that's that's my take on that.
[00:05:46] So factor that in as you're thinking about placing your bets
[00:05:50] and as as we're betting, there are factors like that where
[00:05:53] it's like, well, one team is consistently giving up goals.
[00:05:57] Let me counter your counter.
[00:05:59] Let me triple stamp a double stamp.
[00:06:00] I hear you.
[00:06:01] Yeah.
[00:06:02] Your opinion is valid.
[00:06:03] You mean the world to me.
[00:06:05] However, there is only one game this season, including
[00:06:08] Conkicap Champions bullshit in which Miami has not had
[00:06:13] both teams to score.
[00:06:15] Astric that was the one game that held us out of hitting
[00:06:18] a plus 700 play.
[00:06:19] So that's cool.
[00:06:20] Fuck those guys.
[00:06:21] But every other game has been both teams to score.
[00:06:23] And the one that wasn't, they lost four nil.
[00:06:26] So they have given up a goal or greater in every game.
[00:06:30] That's that's my point there is I feel like Miami is good
[00:06:33] to give up one and Colorado.
[00:06:38] This seems insane, but should be good for one.
[00:06:41] You know, am I am I crazy in that?
[00:06:45] Even Colorado's goals.
[00:06:49] Let's even talk about their best game.
[00:06:53] Their best game was against LAFC in my opinion.
[00:06:58] That's their best game.
[00:07:00] The game against Real Salt Lake, I felt like they were
[00:07:03] kind of given that game a little bit.
[00:07:05] It was kind of one at the end.
[00:07:07] Nothing against triangle.
[00:07:08] He's amazing, but their best game definitely against
[00:07:12] LAFC and I this game sort of, I think defined what
[00:07:18] their offense is going to be.
[00:07:20] It's not very complex.
[00:07:22] The game, the point of their game is get it to
[00:07:25] Durango through the middle, find those so they can run
[00:07:28] behind the lines.
[00:07:29] That's easy to defend.
[00:07:31] I am curious as if they're going to have variety in
[00:07:35] their offensive attack.
[00:07:37] So this is, this is, this is going to be an issue
[00:07:40] for Colorado.
[00:07:41] Yes.
[00:07:42] I think that Miami will score a lot.
[00:07:45] I feel bad for Zach because that's our boy, but I
[00:07:48] think Miami is going to have options.
[00:07:50] Real quick before we finish talking about this, my
[00:07:52] point in here was I was going to try to find with
[00:07:55] Suarez out there are shots on target from Miami
[00:07:58] that are to be found, but every Lionel Messi is
[00:08:03] pretty, pretty popular soccer player is listed
[00:08:07] as questionable and out on a bunch of sources.
[00:08:10] Game time decision on Rota wire, which is like one
[00:08:13] of my go-tos between Rota wire and FUT mob.
[00:08:16] And between the two, no one has a fucking clue
[00:08:19] what's going on.
[00:08:20] And that was the problem with the Dorman match
[00:08:22] earlier today was they had guys listed that were
[00:08:25] definitely not playing like a Mallon who's a
[00:08:27] shot on target machine this year.
[00:08:29] Yeah.
[00:08:30] And then they had so who was definitely listed
[00:08:34] as out and then they had Stugart striker who
[00:08:37] was definitely listed in not even available.
[00:08:39] So when you go to the books, usually the
[00:08:42] books will be ahead of you and you can tell
[00:08:44] like if they've say they have Messi to score,
[00:08:47] you're like, okay, Messi is going to play.
[00:08:49] But the books have that listed today and I just
[00:08:52] don't know.
[00:08:53] So I'm a little I'm struggling with finding value
[00:08:55] because if Messi does play that changes
[00:08:57] an entire distribution of the ball who
[00:09:00] shoots and then Suarez being out who's
[00:09:04] listed as the second most likely to have
[00:09:06] one or more shots on target that changes his
[00:09:08] game too.
[00:09:09] And if there if Suarez is out and Messi
[00:09:10] is in that makes Campana instantly a goal
[00:09:13] scoring machine.
[00:09:14] Yeah.
[00:09:15] I mean, so I guess I'm just bitching but I'm
[00:09:16] trying to it's causing us a lot of
[00:09:21] difficulty getting plays out early.
[00:09:23] I feel bad dropping to play 30 minutes
[00:09:25] before kickoff.
[00:09:26] Sure.
[00:09:27] We don't know who's playing until oh and
[00:09:30] yeah anyways that's another story the NBA
[00:09:32] was fined for doing this they released
[00:09:34] a injury report the other day the 76ers
[00:09:38] and then they changed it too late and we
[00:09:40] had some plays that were in and people lost
[00:09:42] money.
[00:09:43] I think it was more they got fined because
[00:09:45] the books lost money but either way.
[00:09:47] So if we're going to build if we were
[00:09:50] going to build a play from this right
[00:09:54] would I have to assume that Messi is
[00:09:57] playing what's your thoughts is Messi
[00:09:59] playing today.
[00:10:00] If Messi plays Messi gets in last 10
[00:10:04] minutes.
[00:10:05] You don't think he starts.
[00:10:06] He's not he's not he's not going to play
[00:10:08] a full half if he plays at all.
[00:10:11] They're in they have some they have
[00:10:14] some entry issues right now Robert
[00:10:16] Taylor is out also that's not listed on
[00:10:17] Rota wire but we know that he's out
[00:10:19] until sometime in May and so you know
[00:10:24] a lot falls on Kampana right now
[00:10:27] because Suarez is not in either so a
[00:10:30] lot's going to fall on him.
[00:10:32] I think you're going to I think we're
[00:10:34] going to see David Ruiz be really
[00:10:38] active during this game.
[00:10:40] I think that's going to be his his
[00:10:43] marching orders so I expect to see
[00:10:46] shots from David Ruiz today from Miami
[00:10:49] and obviously Kampana he is electric
[00:10:52] he finds himself in great spaces so
[00:10:54] we're going to get some shots on
[00:10:56] target from him today as well and
[00:10:58] hopefully a couple of assists from
[00:11:00] Julian Gressel.
[00:11:01] Yeah Gressel has been on fire so
[00:11:03] yeah here's my here's my problem.
[00:11:07] I want to first half shots on target
[00:11:10] is what I really want to hammer and if
[00:11:12] Suarez is in and Messi's in and Kampana
[00:11:14] is in it just doesn't yeah that's not
[00:11:16] a lineup they run and those are the
[00:11:18] top three options on here we could do
[00:11:20] a to score assist and just put
[00:11:22] Gressel on that but he's not going to
[00:11:24] score he's going to you know I mean
[00:11:26] but it's nice to have that insurance
[00:11:28] if you took Gressel to have one
[00:11:30] or more assist it is plus 240 let me see
[00:11:34] what they have him listed at the score
[00:11:36] assist if it's like anywhere near that
[00:11:38] I think that's that's a beauty.
[00:11:40] I think that's beauty because you know
[00:11:42] Kampana is going to love to play in
[00:11:44] the middle he's got the height
[00:11:46] advantage he's a very strong player
[00:11:48] so I see Gressel putting in a lot
[00:11:52] of balls into the middle and you
[00:11:55] know who knows Alfonso on the back
[00:11:57] post or like I said David Ruiz
[00:11:59] Gressel doing a cut back to the top of
[00:12:01] the 18 I see these scenarios happening
[00:12:04] in my head and they're playing against
[00:12:06] the Rapids who are just
[00:12:09] they're just shaky at the back right now
[00:12:11] and and so I could see any of those
[00:12:14] scenarios happening for Gressel
[00:12:16] to get that assist.
[00:12:18] So what I'm going to do here to score
[00:12:20] or assist is plus 130 to assist is
[00:12:22] plus 240 I am fine with getting
[00:12:25] twice the value out of just taking
[00:12:27] the assist here regardless of messy
[00:12:29] playing Suarez playing whoever plays
[00:12:31] I feel like there's there's scenarios
[00:12:33] where it increases his ability if
[00:12:35] messy is not there he is
[00:12:38] distributing a lot more and I think
[00:12:39] we're getting a little bit of value at
[00:12:40] plus 240 so that's the first bet
[00:12:42] that's the first play for me of the
[00:12:45] of the plus the plus 690
[00:12:48] but I'm going to combine some stuff
[00:12:50] we're gonna look down okay cool I
[00:12:52] will come back to these bets but
[00:12:55] this is man Saturdays are
[00:12:57] Saturdays are wild because we have
[00:12:59] games that start at like 5 6 7 a.m.
[00:13:01] and so I got to be doing research
[00:13:03] the night before but the lineups don't
[00:13:05] come out till an hour prior and then
[00:13:07] it's like just a constant onslaught of
[00:13:09] like trying to figure out what's
[00:13:11] happening what's going to happen and
[00:13:13] then predicting for the not predicting
[00:13:15] but like just the information it's a
[00:13:17] wave all day I'm just getting beat
[00:13:19] over the head and so I got to wait
[00:13:21] until these lineups come out this
[00:13:23] morning coming at 4 30 in the morning
[00:13:25] for me from you two because you
[00:13:27] move it some are fault hey listen
[00:13:29] I'm just saying yeah they're
[00:13:31] they're real early is it's hard to
[00:13:33] get the it's hard to get the numbers
[00:13:35] out when when when they're when
[00:13:37] they're happening so early
[00:13:39] okay so it's into Miami Colorado
[00:13:41] that's how we feel about that right
[00:13:43] yeah we're gonna I'm going to come
[00:13:45] back to it so that that will be a
[00:13:47] focus once we get a lineup I would
[00:13:49] say probably man 30 to 40% of the
[00:13:51] bets for me today will be on that
[00:13:53] game and the other
[00:13:55] 60% will likely
[00:13:57] involve this
[00:13:59] crew DC game because we have the two
[00:14:01] most prolific shots on
[00:14:03] target and shooters and I don't know
[00:14:05] about scoring Ben Tecay is
[00:14:07] very up and down but he will
[00:14:09] get his shots I'm just worried about
[00:14:11] fitness over there
[00:14:13] for example if you go to
[00:14:15] that game the DC Columbus game
[00:14:17] which is at home that I will be in a
[00:14:19] attendance can't wait
[00:14:21] minus 180 for Kucho to score assist
[00:14:23] everybody says Kucho's back Kucho's coming
[00:14:25] back with a vengeance we hated
[00:14:27] seeing him not out there I hope everything's been resolved
[00:14:31] but yeah her locker room shit
[00:14:33] yes you know it's basically
[00:14:35] don't love some attitude stuff
[00:14:37] some some internal discipline
[00:14:39] and this happens from time to time with
[00:14:41] lots of clubs and lots of players
[00:14:43] any I'll say
[00:14:45] this it usually happens
[00:14:47] with offensive players
[00:14:49] and most likely forwards and strikers
[00:14:51] because there is an element
[00:14:53] of this to the game
[00:14:55] that
[00:14:57] the most
[00:14:59] that the players that are
[00:15:01] plagued now say that
[00:15:03] that are plagued with the most confidence are
[00:15:05] the strikers all right let's go down for that
[00:15:07] confident who are that confident
[00:15:09] often
[00:15:11] express their confidence
[00:15:13] in sometimes positive
[00:15:15] and often times negative ways
[00:15:17] and I think that's what we have with this
[00:15:19] scenario and it is most likely
[00:15:21] the striker on a team who is going to be
[00:15:23] penalized by a coach or coaching staff
[00:15:25] or from office staff it can be
[00:15:27] it can be a hey
[00:15:29] sit him out for three games type of thing so
[00:15:31] yes hopefully it's resolved
[00:15:33] hopefully Kucho has done his me a culpa
[00:15:35] and will come in
[00:15:37] I do not believe he will start
[00:15:39] but he may come in in the second half
[00:15:41] so we'll see how that goes I got to keep an eye
[00:15:43] on that because if he doesn't scar
[00:15:45] scarp if he doesn't start this bet is no
[00:15:47] longer valuable
[00:15:49] what main character syndrome is what you could call
[00:15:51] that that's something that people relate to and
[00:15:53] as a former recovering striker
[00:15:55] I can definitely attest to that
[00:15:57] mentality and it's not
[00:15:59] displayed displaying confidence
[00:16:01] it's displaying your frustration in the
[00:16:03] outcome not going your way which is
[00:16:05] maybe not a better thing it's like
[00:16:07] I wanted to go like this and it didn't
[00:16:09] you know and so then you're mad
[00:16:11] and you take it out well it may
[00:16:13] be like that with a striker with your personality
[00:16:15] type it not going the right
[00:16:17] way or you're
[00:16:19] definitely a reformer on the NAA gram
[00:16:21] things going the right way are actually
[00:16:23] your main focus
[00:16:25] but that's part of it regardless
[00:16:27] of the reason why
[00:16:29] they are the way
[00:16:31] that they are there is often this
[00:16:33] outcome no that's what I'm saying the outcome is the same
[00:16:35] but it is so
[00:16:37] like it might be viewed as something but it's
[00:16:39] definitely not good and I'm someone
[00:16:41] who grew up with it and still
[00:16:43] to this day deals with
[00:16:45] that wonderful personality trait
[00:16:47] I was defender I was
[00:16:49] let's say I was a defender like I played
[00:16:51] in some elite college level or something like
[00:16:53] that I did play in college but it was not elite level
[00:16:55] as a defender
[00:16:57] there's a lot of eye rolling that
[00:16:59] happens when we see a lot of
[00:17:01] and we know it's happening we know it's happening
[00:17:03] we can't even do it there's sometimes when I'd have
[00:17:05] outbursts or whatever I don't know you're gonna call
[00:17:07] and you get about 10% of the way through
[00:17:09] and you realize you don't care anymore then you got to make
[00:17:11] the decision like am I gonna finish this or do I
[00:17:13] just give up in the middle which is worse you know
[00:17:15] like I was getting
[00:17:17] throwing a tantrum
[00:17:19] and you're unsure if it's worth it
[00:17:21] I don't remember what I was angry about
[00:17:23] yeah or I'm not committed to this bit anymore
[00:17:25] yeah exactly
[00:17:27] no is it half time in
[00:17:29] Dortmund did we get
[00:17:31] I don't believe we got what we needed
[00:17:33] that
[00:17:35] shot on target should have been shot on target
[00:17:37] no he had two off target
[00:17:39] I don't believe it
[00:17:41] and so did
[00:17:43] Jurrassi
[00:17:45] so we got two out of each we did not get our
[00:17:47] we did not get it that's a bummer
[00:17:49] that is a bummer Sancho is looking bright
[00:17:51] for Dortmund right now so
[00:17:53] hopefully he can continue to improve
[00:17:55] there's no hope in them
[00:17:57] obviously getting to the title
[00:17:59] this year
[00:18:01] with LeBerkeuzen being
[00:18:03] invincible
[00:18:05] should we say that now
[00:18:07] oh dude no they are
[00:18:09] I said on the last episode
[00:18:11] remember the last episode I was like they've already won the league
[00:18:13] and then they went down and scored two
[00:18:15] and stopped it's time to still win I can't
[00:18:17] I couldn't jinx that team if I tried
[00:18:19] okay back to back to make a few money
[00:18:21] because if they do win their next game
[00:18:23] they have clinched it
[00:18:25] they have won the league
[00:18:27] yes and
[00:18:29] take them losing every game
[00:18:31] to not win it
[00:18:33] right yeah
[00:18:35] so if they win the next game they've won the league
[00:18:37] with several games left to play obviously
[00:18:39] how
[00:18:41] much do you think
[00:18:43] Shaby Alonso
[00:18:45] wants that record
[00:18:47] of going undefeated in the season
[00:18:49] to match the Invincibles
[00:18:51] well this would actually probably be
[00:18:53] better actually the better
[00:18:55] it'll be better points and goal differential
[00:18:57] than the Arsenal year
[00:18:59] but what do you think
[00:19:01] about them going undefeated
[00:19:03] is that going to be a high priority for Shaby Alonso
[00:19:05] or is he Leverkusen won
[00:19:07] the season
[00:19:09] I'm gonna bring in some young players
[00:19:11] I'm gonna bring in
[00:19:13] we've won it already now it's time to
[00:19:15] warm up some people so that I can sell some people off
[00:19:17] let's showcase this player
[00:19:19] so that I can get 20 million out of them
[00:19:21] let's showcase this player so I can get 15 million
[00:19:23] out of him is that what he's gonna do
[00:19:25] is he gonna make money for the club
[00:19:27] or is he going
[00:19:29] to go for this
[00:19:31] Invincible record what's he doing
[00:19:33] I mean if you're that close
[00:19:35] to a record like that you just have to
[00:19:37] push and get it in my opinion like when
[00:19:39] when the Colts could
[00:19:41] have won their season
[00:19:43] or finished their regular season undefeated
[00:19:45] or there was another
[00:19:47] one kind of recently that people could maybe remember
[00:19:49] where they did it and I feel like it's just
[00:19:51] like just go for it man like why would
[00:19:53] you not and I understand injury and whatnot
[00:19:55] but this isn't football in American sense
[00:19:57] you're not getting your head beat in on every play
[00:19:59] get out there and win it
[00:20:01] they're what like 400 games straight of being
[00:20:03] unbeaten they can go the entire season
[00:20:05] that'd be insane it's almost as good
[00:20:07] as Rodry's record
[00:20:09] I've never beaten
[00:20:11] I love that let's get back to this though we have gotten
[00:20:13] way off target we're way off topic
[00:20:15] back to MLS so what I've got
[00:20:17] so far and this is
[00:20:19] it's already worrying me about Kucho
[00:20:21] because if he's back he has to start
[00:20:23] why would he not start
[00:20:25] if he doesn't start he doesn't play
[00:20:27] you don't come back
[00:20:29] from an attitude
[00:20:31] thing where you've already been
[00:20:33] reprimanded and then like get punished
[00:20:35] again in that
[00:20:37] I just don't think that's great for morale
[00:20:39] team you know just all of the above there
[00:20:41] it depends on how
[00:20:43] egregious his
[00:20:45] behavior was
[00:20:47] okay so let's say
[00:20:49] he starts I hear what you're saying
[00:20:51] what you're saying makes the most sense
[00:20:53] I'm not I don't want to say that
[00:20:55] what you're saying makes the most sense
[00:20:57] however it depends on how agree
[00:20:59] I mean Wilfrid Nancy has made it clear
[00:21:01] and he made it clear when he came to the club
[00:21:03] I'm the boss
[00:21:05] in what I say goes
[00:21:07] he made that very clear
[00:21:09] he had a run in with Kucho early and we
[00:21:11] heard rumors
[00:21:13] that Kucho was on the chopping block and was going to get sold
[00:21:15] yeah we did
[00:21:17] not from guys down the street
[00:21:19] I talked to
[00:21:21] some people that had me real
[00:21:23] real people were having talks
[00:21:25] about do we need to offload
[00:21:27] Kucho is he not going to
[00:21:29] fall in line and what we saw
[00:21:31] was
[00:21:33] me a cupel from Kucho and we saw him fall
[00:21:35] in line and then we saw us when the MLS
[00:21:37] Cup
[00:21:39] it is clear to me
[00:21:41] despite how much I love Kucho despite how much
[00:21:43] I love the players you know me I bleed
[00:21:45] I bleed Morris
[00:21:47] I bleed darling to Nagbee
[00:21:49] but this is Wilfrid Nancy's team
[00:21:51] yeah
[00:21:53] and he makes the call
[00:21:55] okay I'm trying to get as close to
[00:21:57] plus 690 I'm not sure if this is
[00:21:59] a good thing or a detriment
[00:22:01] because I'm like pulling stuff in and out
[00:22:03] to try to make it right
[00:22:05] but I just looked at LAFC playing
[00:22:07] LA Galaxy
[00:22:09] just a completely broken
[00:22:11] Los Angeles team
[00:22:13] no in all seriousness this should be the most
[00:22:15] electric game of this week
[00:22:17] start at 730
[00:22:19] this is going to be the best game of the week for sure
[00:22:21] yeah and there should be about
[00:22:23] 4000 goals in this game
[00:22:25] over one and a half in this game
[00:22:27] is
[00:22:29] minus 850 which is a wild
[00:22:31] number
[00:22:33] yeah for a minus one and a half
[00:22:35] it's a lot but
[00:22:37] well this is what it would be though because
[00:22:39] LAFC is struggling but they are
[00:22:41] hosting and so they do have
[00:22:43] the stadium advantage and you and I
[00:22:45] have been in that stadium
[00:22:47] it is a great stadium they have a great fan base
[00:22:49] it is an advantage for them to
[00:22:51] play at home it's not like San Jose
[00:22:53] or some of these other
[00:22:55] teams that really struggle at home
[00:22:57] but we just need one goal from either team
[00:22:59] to start right like
[00:23:01] each team like one team scores
[00:23:03] two one team scores one I don't care which way
[00:23:05] it's going to go that's what's going to happen
[00:23:07] I like the both teams to score
[00:23:09] at minus 230
[00:23:11] but over two and a half
[00:23:13] goals is minus
[00:23:15] 230 which
[00:23:17] two goals one by each team
[00:23:19] or three total goals
[00:23:21] I think we're sitting right about the same and I think we have a little bit more room
[00:23:23] to lose three nil
[00:23:25] and still hit the two oh two and a half
[00:23:27] I don't see that happening but if you take
[00:23:29] Julian Gressel anytime assist
[00:23:31] Kujo Hernandez to score or assist
[00:23:33] over two and a half
[00:23:35] in the
[00:23:37] LAFC LA Galaxy
[00:23:39] and then what I threw in here was
[00:23:41] over one and a half goals in the Miami
[00:23:43] game which
[00:23:45] is if grueli if grueli
[00:23:47] and Gressel gets an assist
[00:23:49] one of those goals has to get covered
[00:23:51] both team to score covers that Miami 2 nil cover
[00:23:53] you get it that's at plus 673
[00:23:55] so I'm getting pretty close
[00:23:57] that's really close
[00:23:59] that's really close here's the thing about
[00:24:01] the LAGALAFC
[00:24:03] game
[00:24:05] I don't I don't see this happening
[00:24:07] I don't see it being a snoozer zero zero
[00:24:09] I just I don't see that happening
[00:24:11] just because LAFC has been
[00:24:13] letting in goals and we know what
[00:24:15] LAGALAFC is like letting in goals
[00:24:17] I see this easily
[00:24:19] Tim as a
[00:24:21] 2233
[00:24:23] big guys 3434
[00:24:25] I see seven goals possibly in this
[00:24:27] game so I think that's
[00:24:29] that's a no-brainer for me
[00:24:31] that's what I'm thinking
[00:24:33] here's my here's what I can do
[00:24:35] I can either try to add
[00:24:37] something silly like a plus
[00:24:39] 1800 to get it
[00:24:41] or minus 1800 to get it to
[00:24:43] you know
[00:24:45] plus 690 or we could just run it at 673
[00:24:47] like
[00:24:49] Bawonga to have one or more shots in the first half
[00:24:51] that takes us to plus 711
[00:24:53] so we're above the 690
[00:24:55] above the 711
[00:24:57] he's gonna have a shot in the first half
[00:24:59] but do we just keep it four legs
[00:25:01] and then do the 673
[00:25:03] whatever you say I'm gonna do you make the call
[00:25:07] I like the
[00:25:09] 673 I like I like where we're at
[00:25:11] okay to get
[00:25:13] over 710
[00:25:15] here I figured it out I figured it
[00:25:17] out watch this to win 690
[00:25:19] instead of betting $100 I bet
[00:25:21] $100 and 245 so I'll win
[00:25:23] there you go all right we've already fixed the problem
[00:25:27] we did it wonderful
[00:25:29] what if
[00:25:31] LA's strategy in the first half
[00:25:33] is anything it is gonna be don't let Bawonga
[00:25:35] shoot he's not they're not gonna be able to do that
[00:25:37] the whole game he's gonna get shots off
[00:25:39] he's probably gonna get goals
[00:25:41] but in the first half you know
[00:25:43] that's gonna be their game plan
[00:25:45] is to keep him from shooting
[00:25:47] we'll see is he gonna get a soccer
[00:25:49] we'll never know
[00:25:51] is LAFC a real soccer team we'll never know
[00:25:53] dude speaking of LAFC
[00:25:55] do you remember I hate bringing this up
[00:25:57] Mexico scored
[00:25:59] five first half goals on Team USA
[00:26:01] and Vela had
[00:26:03] a lot of hair
[00:26:05] I think it was 2007 he looked
[00:26:07] like me in high school like trying to be
[00:26:09] a Hollister model
[00:26:11] and it just had this big puff and he was
[00:26:13] very good at soccer back then
[00:26:15] so definitely missing
[00:26:17] they're definitely missing him
[00:26:19] let's build a one and a half because one and a half goals is the best bet in
[00:26:21] MLS both teams
[00:26:23] score the most fun or the best of value
[00:26:25] one and a half is the
[00:26:27] I'll just shut up it's a good bet
[00:26:29] let's go through this
[00:26:31] let's get a
[00:26:33] alright let's get a
[00:26:35] let's just get a one and a half
[00:26:37] let's get a one and a half
[00:26:39] little smacker
[00:26:41] little plus money I want to stretch it a bit
[00:26:43] I want to stretch it
[00:26:45] are we done with Columbus DC
[00:26:47] we don't know who the fuck is playing
[00:26:49] and when they're playing
[00:26:51] I want to say this
[00:26:53] Christian Benteke
[00:26:55] Christian Benteke
[00:26:57] is
[00:26:59] a towering figure
[00:27:01] he's a big guy
[00:27:03] I'm concerned with no Kamacho
[00:27:05] I'm concerned
[00:27:07] actually
[00:27:09] not just with no Kamacho
[00:27:11] I'm concerned that there's no Zawadsky
[00:27:13] you know one of the things
[00:27:15] that we've taken comfort in
[00:27:17] is that if Kamacho
[00:27:19] misses something
[00:27:21] or whatever Zawadsky is usually
[00:27:23] there to clean up the mess
[00:27:25] Zawadsky has proven himself
[00:27:27] to be in a million positions at one
[00:27:29] and very very good he is out
[00:27:31] with injury
[00:27:33] Kamacho's out with injury
[00:27:35] I am concerned about
[00:27:37] Benteke's
[00:27:39] towering ability in the box
[00:27:41] I'm guessing DC
[00:27:43] is going to try to get a lot of corners
[00:27:45] to give him the opportunity
[00:27:47] to score some goals
[00:27:49] hopefully
[00:27:51] well for them it would be hopefully early on
[00:27:53] so that they can sit back
[00:27:55] and absorb power in the second half
[00:27:59] I am a little squeaky bum time
[00:28:01] about Christian Benteke
[00:28:03] in this game
[00:28:05] he's pretty good at soccer
[00:28:07] I'm going to be targeting him
[00:28:09] for shots on target
[00:28:11] as a crew fan
[00:28:13] it hurts me but I know
[00:28:15] I know what
[00:28:17] I'm not oblivious to
[00:28:19] reality
[00:28:21] right he was
[00:28:23] Christian Benteke actually got a
[00:28:25] bad
[00:28:27] he was sort of like he kind of emerged
[00:28:29] in the wrong time
[00:28:31] because he emerged as a great Belgian striker
[00:28:33] had a great career
[00:28:35] at Crystal Palace
[00:28:37] and had some good time
[00:28:39] at Liverpool Christian Benteke
[00:28:41] a great Belgian striker
[00:28:43] he emerged at the same time
[00:28:45] that Ramelu Lukaku emerged
[00:28:47] and you're never going to start over him
[00:28:49] because Ramelu Lukaku
[00:28:51] is twice as big
[00:28:53] as every defender
[00:28:55] he's twice as strong as every defender
[00:28:57] and he has a laser
[00:28:59] for a foot
[00:29:01] he has a rifle for a foot
[00:29:03] and so Christian Benteke who
[00:29:05] I think could have started most of those Belgian games
[00:29:07] as a starting striker
[00:29:09] for a period of about 6
[00:29:11] 7 years
[00:29:13] would have been him
[00:29:15] if Ramelu Lukaku wasn't there
[00:29:17] I think his statistics as a Belgian international
[00:29:19] would have been
[00:29:21] much, much greater
[00:29:23] he just emerged at the wrong time
[00:29:25] and so that's who we're facing
[00:29:27] we're facing somebody who was just
[00:29:29] under Ramelu Lukaku
[00:29:31] that is a dangerous figure
[00:29:33] when you have a short back line
[00:29:35] so exactly
[00:29:37] and even against
[00:29:39] not a short back line and a depleted black on like us
[00:29:41] he just this season has
[00:29:43] 2.5
[00:29:45] he's averaging a full, he doesn't get subbed off
[00:29:47] he plays the whole game
[00:29:49] he's averaging 2.5 shots on target
[00:29:51] 3
[00:29:53] hit 0.75 so almost 4
[00:29:55] shots per match
[00:29:57] and 2 of his 15 shots have hit the frame
[00:29:59] which is not a shot on target
[00:30:01] but it pretty much should be
[00:30:03] it's like hitting me
[00:30:05] it's like a basically green in regulation
[00:30:07] so that could easily be an even better percentage
[00:30:09] Columbus crew that gives up shots
[00:30:11] we do give up attempts
[00:30:13] I feel for Schulte today because
[00:30:15] he's gonna get peppered with Ben Tedges
[00:30:17] and Pedro Santos is coming back
[00:30:19] and Pedro Santos
[00:30:21] I don't know if you saw last week's highlights
[00:30:23] but the highlight of the week
[00:30:25] was the screamer
[00:30:27] from Pedro Santos
[00:30:29] the screamers that we miss
[00:30:31] that we love to see
[00:30:33] dude that lefty
[00:30:35] he's coming home
[00:30:37] his hardest
[00:30:39] and not because he doesn't like Ohio
[00:30:41] it's out of respect for our club that he's gonna be playing his best
[00:30:44] and so we might see a couple of shots
[00:30:46] no, dare I say we will see
[00:30:48] a couple of shots from Pedro Santos
[00:30:50] just because
[00:30:52] he's playing against his old club these factors do matter
[00:30:55] can you get Pedro in that lineup for shots
[00:30:58] so that's what I was about to tell you
[00:31:00] this is why I'm frustrated
[00:31:02] Pedro Santos is in the lineup
[00:31:04] he's the defensive left
[00:31:06] starting back for this team
[00:31:08] however if you go to this game
[00:31:10] shots on target
[00:31:12] Kucho to have one more shot on target is minus 1400
[00:31:14] if you're a new sports batter that's a
[00:31:16] it's ridiculous
[00:31:18] but you cannot even get
[00:31:20] Pedro Santos for one shot on target
[00:31:22] they have Zawadski on there
[00:31:24] Russell Rowett minus 2-10
[00:31:26] Christian Ramirez at 180 who is
[00:31:28] most certainly
[00:31:30] not playing this game
[00:31:32] well, Christian Ramirez isn't definitely not playing
[00:31:34] yeah, that's a
[00:31:36] I'm looking to see if I miss something
[00:31:38] defense on a corner right
[00:31:40] who would be able to stand up against a Christian Benteke
[00:31:42] would be a Christian Ramirez
[00:31:44] but look, but look, Camacho
[00:31:46] who could stand up to him
[00:31:48] Camacho is definitely out
[00:31:50] they have he
[00:31:52] estimated return
[00:31:54] April 6th
[00:31:56] Camacho groin not an option for Saturday's match
[00:31:58] just like so Zawadski's out
[00:32:00] Ramirez is out
[00:32:02] I'm bitching about the beginning yet
[00:32:04] the two people listed
[00:32:06] the sixth most likely to have a shot on target is
[00:32:08] Sean Zawadski
[00:32:10] and the third most likely is Christian Ramirez
[00:32:12] they're even fucking in the game dude
[00:32:14] and then you can't get
[00:32:16] so this is the plus and minus of being in a market
[00:32:18] where nobody bets we can find a lot of value
[00:32:20] but sometimes they're so
[00:32:22] off of what's happening I can't even bet the value
[00:32:24] all that bitching to say I would have taken
[00:32:26] Pedro Santos to have a shot on target
[00:32:28] I'm gonna keep an eye on it
[00:32:30] I mean I could check DraftKings
[00:32:32] but that doesn't make for a great podcast
[00:32:34] but we do know Ben Teke's playing
[00:32:36] we do know Ben Teke's gonna have
[00:32:38] two or more shots on target and we do know that it's
[00:32:40] plus 160 for him to have two or more shots on target
[00:32:42] so that doesn't make sense to me
[00:32:44] and we're actually gonna take it
[00:32:46] should we just hit Ben Teke straight
[00:32:48] two plus shots on target and not have to worry about anything else
[00:32:50] because if I put Kucho two shots on target
[00:32:52] he's minus 270
[00:32:54] so the 160 goes to
[00:32:56] 247
[00:32:58] but then I need two shots on target from Kucho
[00:33:00] that's like a lot of exposure
[00:33:02] for they have Derek Jones
[00:33:04] as minus 105 to have a shot on target
[00:33:06] yeah I don't see that happening
[00:33:08] my my I
[00:33:10] I would be
[00:33:12] is Matan gonna play? he's listed
[00:33:14] Matan is also out on injury
[00:33:16] it's definitely not playing
[00:33:18] they might as well just put like
[00:33:20] fucking
[00:33:22] they have Matan listed as a question
[00:33:24] Kai Kamala on here maybe
[00:33:26] you haven't even heard reports that he's looking good in training
[00:33:28] so
[00:33:30] that would be a real surprise
[00:33:32] what if I just popped up on here
[00:33:34] Eagle Ian shot on target
[00:33:36] 2009
[00:33:38] shots on target
[00:33:40] it's going to be in the lineup
[00:33:42] next to Robbie Rogers and Frankie Hayduck
[00:33:44] I was gonna say of all those players
[00:33:46] Hayduck would be the closest to the field
[00:33:48] like
[00:33:50] if anybody's gonna get a shot on target that's not starting
[00:33:52] in this soccer badge
[00:33:54] you can just run on the pitch give a little tap
[00:33:56] what if you could bet
[00:33:58] that like a non-player
[00:34:00] to have a shot on target
[00:34:02] I have never if you're a Columbus
[00:34:04] fan and you haven't met Frankie Hayduck
[00:34:06] let me describe to you what that scenario
[00:34:08] is gonna be like for you when you eventually meet him
[00:34:10] because if you're anywhere in Columbus
[00:34:12] you're eventually gonna meet Frankie Hayduck
[00:34:14] when you meet him you are going
[00:34:16] to be absolutely
[00:34:18] positively convinced
[00:34:20] he is high and drunk at the same time
[00:34:22] while he's talking to you
[00:34:24] and he just pops some cocaine
[00:34:26] the reality is
[00:34:28] that's just his normal personality
[00:34:30] that's exactly what he's actually like
[00:34:32] he
[00:34:34] his personality is just like that
[00:34:36] I think he could actually get out on the field
[00:34:38] I'd put money on it
[00:34:40] I'd put money that Frankie Hayduck could still kick ass on the field right now
[00:34:42] one line of cocaine and boom
[00:34:44] Frankie's in there
[00:34:46] because if you think that guy who's naturally
[00:34:48] that hyped a little bit of cocaine
[00:34:50] I can only imagine super hero power was probably
[00:34:52] super yeah at least that are just
[00:34:54] instant death
[00:34:56] alright so that's an official play from me right now
[00:34:58] Benteke two or more shots on target
[00:35:00] it hurts to bet against my team
[00:35:02] but we could take solace
[00:35:04] in shots on target don't have to go in
[00:35:06] they just have to have gone in
[00:35:08] had someone not stopped them
[00:35:10] at plus 160 I like that a lot
[00:35:12] and I'll probably try to work that into
[00:35:16] something else
[00:35:18] so we got the plus 690 built
[00:35:20] kind of
[00:35:22] I really like Russell for that
[00:35:24] assist today that feels
[00:35:26] really really nice at plus
[00:35:28] 248 I feel that
[00:35:30] DC's been wanting
[00:35:32] to come back and score against us
[00:35:34] they've been wanting this rivalry
[00:35:36] to reemerge
[00:35:38] this used to be our main rival
[00:35:40] in MLS before Cincinnati
[00:35:42] and just because
[00:35:44] of the struggles of the team
[00:35:46] you know
[00:35:48] they've just not lived up
[00:35:50] to a rivalry game
[00:35:52] and so I am
[00:35:54] thinking with Pedro coming back
[00:35:56] Christian Benteke doing well
[00:35:58] this season
[00:36:00] them as a team doing well this season
[00:36:02] this could be a real rivalry game again
[00:36:04] and I miss that
[00:36:06] man I hate how much
[00:36:10] how well he matches up
[00:36:12] against our back line today
[00:36:14] it's not great
[00:36:16] this could be
[00:36:18] easily a tie game
[00:36:20] if we get out of it I can see
[00:36:22] DC taking points from Columbus
[00:36:24] today
[00:36:26] and that wouldn't be unreasonable
[00:36:28] his
[00:36:30] 3 plus shots on target
[00:36:32] is plus 550
[00:36:34] it's getting pretty
[00:36:36] crazy over here
[00:36:38] 3 shots on target
[00:36:40] even for a striker
[00:36:42] it's a lot
[00:36:44] he's averaging 2.5 per
[00:36:46] and 3.75 all we would need is for one of his
[00:36:48] other shots
[00:36:50] half of one of his other framework shots
[00:36:52] to be on target
[00:36:54] I think he scores today which I don't like
[00:36:56] but I think he scores and gets at least one other attempt
[00:36:58] I think the 2 is easy
[00:37:00] the 3 is a little bit long
[00:37:02] but if you combine that 3
[00:37:04] with like a Cucco 2
[00:37:06] we could get pretty crazy
[00:37:08] if you combine 3 considering
[00:37:10] our back line
[00:37:12] I can see that
[00:37:14] we've got
[00:37:16] Cucco to score assist
[00:37:18] Benteque 2 plus shots on target
[00:37:20] over one and a half in the Miami Colorado game
[00:37:22] total goals
[00:37:24] and then Denny Buonga
[00:37:26] to have 2 or more shots on target
[00:37:28] in LA
[00:37:30] we get plus 5.93
[00:37:32] we're almost to the 6.93 there
[00:37:34] what if the whole podcast was just putting plays together as close to
[00:37:36] plus 690 as possible
[00:37:38] that's actually a niche
[00:37:40] what do you feel about
[00:37:42] Jovlich
[00:37:44] getting
[00:37:46] some shot against
[00:37:48] the Los Angeles football club
[00:37:50] he did not start last week
[00:37:52] and I didn't like that at all
[00:37:54] so I'm curious
[00:37:56] he's slated to start today
[00:38:00] Paintzel was
[00:38:02] taking all of his
[00:38:04] he had 2 shots, one on target last week
[00:38:06] so I'm confused what's going on there
[00:38:08] he had a goal taken back
[00:38:10] who Paintzel
[00:38:12] Jovlich
[00:38:14] he had a goal reversed
[00:38:16] so he's still dangerous
[00:38:18] he's still active
[00:38:20] yeah
[00:38:22] but why didn't he play
[00:38:24] or why didn't he start
[00:38:26] that was my
[00:38:28] how many minutes did he play like 20 minutes
[00:38:30] last week
[00:38:32] let me see what his odds are
[00:38:34] man what a bad podcast
[00:38:36] so terrible
[00:38:38] shots
[00:38:40] shots
[00:38:42] you know I love me some
[00:38:44] D. Jen
[00:38:46] Jovlich
[00:38:48] that was the thing too
[00:38:50] is he could set an L.A. record last week
[00:38:52] I forget what the record was
[00:38:54] what a shitty show
[00:38:56] he could have done something cool last week
[00:38:58] but he didn't start so he wasn't able to do it
[00:39:00] no that
[00:39:02] and we're working on something huge right now
[00:39:04] that this is hopefully
[00:39:06] the people that are involved are not going to listen
[00:39:08] to this
[00:39:10] Jovlich to have a shot on target is definitely going to happen
[00:39:12] I don't hate that
[00:39:14] he's just plus 390
[00:39:16] so it's a very expensive
[00:39:18] it's
[00:39:20] I want to say that the reason
[00:39:22] that Miguel Berry started
[00:39:26] is because he had a great game the previous week
[00:39:28] and so
[00:39:30] that's why I think he started over Jovlich
[00:39:32] Jovlich came in
[00:39:34] he was more dangerous than Miguel in this game
[00:39:36] we love Miguel he's our boy
[00:39:38] love him love that he got the start
[00:39:40] against Seattle last week
[00:39:42] but
[00:39:44] wasn't as effective and so
[00:39:46] that's why Jovlich came in in the 66th
[00:39:48] minute
[00:39:50] last week
[00:39:52] Seattle had a
[00:39:54] decent defense man they have really
[00:39:56] those rodans have really let us down
[00:39:58] this season
[00:40:00] I'm okay with it
[00:40:02] since he in New York
[00:40:04] I don't want to go through the whole slate
[00:40:06] I'm just trying to find some spots that are
[00:40:08] sneaky good
[00:40:10] I hate that they're all in our game
[00:40:12] Venteque
[00:40:14] 2 plus shots on target at plus 160 is
[00:40:16] by far my favorite
[00:40:18] and least favorite
[00:40:20] hit of this
[00:40:22] this whole slate so far
[00:40:24] is Lewis Morgan going to stay hot
[00:40:26] his shot on target for the whole match is only
[00:40:28] minus 145
[00:40:30] so I just need one attempt from him
[00:40:32] and remember when you're betting shots on
[00:40:34] target that the penalty takers
[00:40:36] get a shot on target
[00:40:38] when there is a penalty
[00:40:40] Lewis Morgan has already had 2 or 3 penalties
[00:40:42] this season
[00:40:44] I think it's a lock in
[00:40:46] this is a great both teams to score game
[00:40:48] Cincinnati is playing at home
[00:40:50] New York is coming in hot
[00:40:52] they've got Tolkien back
[00:40:54] I think this is going to be a fantastic game
[00:40:56] definitely both teams to score
[00:40:58] you can throw that in there
[00:41:00] so
[00:41:02] we were going to build an over one and a half
[00:41:04] and then we
[00:41:06] completely got side tracked
[00:41:08] so I've built
[00:41:10] right now I've got 2 plus
[00:41:12] Mwonga 2 plus Venteque
[00:41:14] Lewis Morgan 1 plus
[00:41:16] these are all full game not first half
[00:41:18] we got plus 522
[00:41:20] so I took out all of the points
[00:41:22] and goals and goal
[00:41:24] and I'm just going to shots
[00:41:26] because we could hit a massive shot
[00:41:28] and every game could end 0-0
[00:41:30] it's possible
[00:41:32] but look at some of the things
[00:41:34] we've got coming up
[00:41:36] obviously we talked about the LAFC
[00:41:38] which we think could be 7, 10, 15 goals
[00:41:40] the battle
[00:41:42] of Canada west versus east
[00:41:44] Vancouver versus Toronto
[00:41:46] both teams are playing really well
[00:41:48] right now both teams are scoring
[00:41:50] goals that looks like a good one
[00:41:52] the biggest snoozer of the game
[00:41:54] I think everyone can probably agree
[00:41:56] is going to be New England versus Charlotte
[00:41:58] RIP
[00:42:00] Caleb Porter it is not looking good for you
[00:42:02] my friend unless Jonathan Mensa
[00:42:04] is able to come up with 2 defensive goals for you
[00:42:06] looks like you're in real trouble
[00:42:08] he owes us 1
[00:42:10] he owes us 1 that's all I know
[00:42:12] yeah
[00:42:14] do have some good stuff
[00:42:16] I think the Chicago Houston games going to be a good one
[00:42:18] Minnesota Salt Lake is also going to be a great game
[00:42:20] both teams playing very well
[00:42:22] we talked about Drongo scoring goals
[00:42:24] Minnesota
[00:42:26] able to absorb all of our pressure and get a goal against us
[00:42:28] granted it was at home
[00:42:30] for them but I feel like they are
[00:42:32] really legit this season
[00:42:34] so that's a distinct possibility
[00:42:36] Philadelphia
[00:42:38] has
[00:42:40] at least turned one of the lights on in the house
[00:42:42] it looks like somebody has figured out what's going on
[00:42:44] in the house there
[00:42:46] they are reemerging and they are going to play Nashville
[00:42:48] at home
[00:42:50] Nashville at home is good
[00:42:52] so that's going to be a good game
[00:42:54] Yacumakis is out
[00:42:56] these are good games
[00:42:58] these are really good games
[00:43:00] Snooze are probably Seattle sounders
[00:43:02] posting Montreal
[00:43:04] watch that one be the 7 goal thriller
[00:43:06] Yacumakis is out
[00:43:08] Zonday Silva also
[00:43:10] but he is listed as the
[00:43:12] top shots on target
[00:43:14] it's very difficult to
[00:43:16] build plays because when someone like that is in
[00:43:18] it adjusts
[00:43:20] other ones the only value
[00:43:22] here or advantage would be
[00:43:24] Jamal
[00:43:26] Tiare
[00:43:28] they are back up 31 year old
[00:43:30] back up scored 2 goals
[00:43:32] in the Chicago game
[00:43:34] he
[00:43:36] has not played
[00:43:38] he scored 2 goals in
[00:43:40] what was it 20 minutes
[00:43:42] 10 minutes
[00:43:44] yeah
[00:43:46] I remember that now
[00:43:48] but is he going to play
[00:43:50] soccer like that today
[00:43:52] instead of Yacumakis
[00:43:54] I don't know that I want to put money on him
[00:43:56] to score
[00:43:58] but he's not even listed
[00:44:00] as an option
[00:44:02] for shot on target which is what I would have taken him at
[00:44:04] they have Alonzo Martinez
[00:44:06] this is going to be a game
[00:44:08] they are playing away from home
[00:44:10] they are playing in NYCFC
[00:44:12] this is going to be a game
[00:44:14] where Thiago
[00:44:16] Amada is going to have to show
[00:44:18] his quality
[00:44:20] and it's going to be a game
[00:44:22] where Jamal is going to have to prove
[00:44:24] that he is the right back up
[00:44:26] for the team because you are never going to get
[00:44:28] over Yacumakis if Yacumakis
[00:44:30] is healthy and so you got to prove
[00:44:32] you got to be a Christian Ramirez
[00:44:34] you got to prove that you are the right guy
[00:44:36] to come in after Kutcha
[00:44:38] and that's what he is going to do
[00:44:40] I'm guessing he is going to be shooting
[00:44:42] even if the shots are wild
[00:44:44] and not on target
[00:44:46] this is a guy that you should be able to bet
[00:44:48] a number of shots on target
[00:44:50] 3 or 4 shots on target
[00:44:52] or 3 or 4 or 5 shots at least
[00:44:54] he is going to be doing that today
[00:44:56] against NYCFC
[00:44:58] that's what's going to happen
[00:45:00] in this book does not have an option
[00:45:02] he is not listed as shots
[00:45:04] or shots on target
[00:45:06] he averages exactly 1 per the season
[00:45:08] he is not taking a lot of rips
[00:45:10] he hasn't played a lot of time without
[00:45:12] Yacumakis
[00:45:14] yeah dude I can't find him anywhere
[00:45:16] see this is what I am saying
[00:45:18] I would like to find some value
[00:45:20] we should make a proposal
[00:45:22] to Fandals and to DraftKings
[00:45:24] and whoever else
[00:45:26] that you and I should just be consulted
[00:45:28] before the lines go up
[00:45:30] yeah then I become the enemy
[00:45:32] all we would do is look at injury reports
[00:45:34] and we would improve this
[00:45:36] by at least 40%
[00:45:38] yeah it's pretty wild
[00:45:40] how bad it is right now
[00:45:42] okay give me
[00:45:44] is Bogus going to start up top today
[00:45:46] or are they taking him out
[00:45:48] Bogus is listed as the starter
[00:45:50] as expected starter and everything
[00:45:52] and the lines are all showing
[00:45:54] our old friend twice over Kaikimara
[00:45:56] as the most likely behind
[00:45:58] Dennis the men is to have shots
[00:46:00] because if Bogus is out there
[00:46:02] I think his shots
[00:46:04] are valuable
[00:46:06] he's minus 180 where Kaikimara is minus 800
[00:46:08] he doesn't play
[00:46:10] I think Kaikimara gets
[00:46:12] subbed in
[00:46:14] regardless of the score
[00:46:16] regardless of the score
[00:46:18] Kaikimara
[00:46:20] subbed in 75th to 80th minute
[00:46:22] and I think he has at least
[00:46:24] two shots
[00:46:26] minimum
[00:46:28] I bet one of those shots is going to be on target
[00:46:30] so just two or more shots
[00:46:32] that's my prediction for Kaikimara
[00:46:34] and LAFCFCFC
[00:46:36] where they're at
[00:46:38] player to have two or more shots
[00:46:40] Kaikimara minus
[00:46:42] 3000
[00:46:44] so I'd say they agree with you
[00:46:46] pretty heavily
[00:46:48] that is so interesting that they would even have it
[00:46:50] like that
[00:46:52] given that he
[00:46:54] hasn't played for them really
[00:46:56] so that is
[00:46:58] that is an interesting
[00:47:00] line
[00:47:02] I definitely would not put it that way
[00:47:04] I mean I think it's going to happen
[00:47:06] but
[00:47:08] I don't think it's going to happen that
[00:47:10] assurantly
[00:47:12] yeah this is why
[00:47:14] what I'm at right now is
[00:47:16] and I'm sure everyone has turned this off by this point
[00:47:18] Awonga 2 plus
[00:47:20] Benteke 2 plus
[00:47:22] Lewis Morgan 1 plus at 522
[00:47:24] so I'm just going to run that
[00:47:26] um
[00:47:28] I'm going to run that for $69
[00:47:30] that will pay 360
[00:47:32] alright
[00:47:34] I like that a lot
[00:47:36] yeah let's do that
[00:47:38] we will stop torturing people with one more play
[00:47:40] let's build
[00:47:42] the over 1.5 total
[00:47:44] so this is two goals
[00:47:48] in the game and I'll start
[00:47:50] I feel like this is not difficult
[00:47:52] I'll give 2 you give 2 or do you want to go back
[00:47:54] to the 4th 1 and 1
[00:47:56] let's do 1 and 1
[00:47:58] so is picking
[00:48:00] Miami and the LA
[00:48:02] battle are just not fair so we're going to throw these in here
[00:48:04] so we got 1.5
[00:48:06] are you okay with that one 1.5
[00:48:08] in the Miami
[00:48:10] where
[00:48:12] are my total goals
[00:48:14] the two Los Angeles teams those are a given
[00:48:16] yeah so we're going to go 1.5
[00:48:18] in that game even though it's minus 850 because
[00:48:20] I like insurance
[00:48:22] but yeah
[00:48:24] there should be some goals
[00:48:26] alright
[00:48:28] and then looking at the slate
[00:48:30] we have
[00:48:32] shit I lost it
[00:48:34] I had the whole thing pulled up
[00:48:36] oh I went into the New York Atlanta to see if
[00:48:38] Yaka Maki is really broken
[00:48:40] and he is so we have
[00:48:42] 1, 2, 3, 4
[00:48:44] fixtures that are
[00:48:46] 1.5
[00:48:48] 100%
[00:48:50] 1.5
[00:48:52] 100%
[00:48:54] San Jose
[00:48:56] over 1.5
[00:48:58] I'm pissed at Austin because
[00:49:00] in the Dallas Austin match last week
[00:49:02] we had first half goal
[00:49:04] and then they scored 4 or 5 goals
[00:49:06] in the second half 0 in the first half
[00:49:08] so they did catch their total but they fucked us on that
[00:49:10] front end
[00:49:12] and then we have
[00:49:14] Minnesota and Real Salt Lake
[00:49:16] I think that might be the one that would be the most overlooked
[00:49:18] in total goals
[00:49:20] and then St. Louis
[00:49:22] and Dallas
[00:49:24] St. Louis and Dallas
[00:49:26] is the one that I'm so I mean
[00:49:28] if you look at St. Louis we talked about them earlier 11 and 11
[00:49:30] they played 6 matches they've given up 11
[00:49:32] they scored 11 I love the symmetry
[00:49:34] Dallas however given up 10
[00:49:36] only scored 6
[00:49:38] so these two teams have given up 21 goals
[00:49:40] in 11 matches they are averaging
[00:49:42] so many fucking goals against
[00:49:44] I think we bet on the poor defense
[00:49:46] more so than the stellar offense
[00:49:48] what do you think?
[00:49:50] We don't do that often and I feel like
[00:49:52] that's a pretty decent bet today
[00:49:54] I feel like it's going to be
[00:49:56] we call that Sunday League football
[00:49:58] I think that's what we're going to see
[00:50:00] we're going to see some Sunday League football between the two
[00:50:02] I think that was not an expected pick
[00:50:04] but just looking at that
[00:50:06] that was one of those just listen to the math
[00:50:08] I start looking at the teams
[00:50:10] and you're like oh yeah these two
[00:50:12] these two whatever
[00:50:14] and Real Salt Lake I would not look at them
[00:50:16] as an over one and a half
[00:50:18] but the math for them says
[00:50:20] absolutely
[00:50:22] so let's start with right now we've got Miami
[00:50:24] LA, St. Louis, Dallas
[00:50:26] the three of those is minus 142
[00:50:28] the three of those together is a pretty solid builder
[00:50:30] like I would run that
[00:50:32] to try to sneak some
[00:50:34] units in right before we start adding more
[00:50:36] and to get plus money
[00:50:38] and then if you take that Minnesota Real Salt Lake
[00:50:40] that I had mentioned
[00:50:42] we get plus 106
[00:50:44] so either of those would be a very solid
[00:50:46] option to build your bankroll
[00:50:48] you know when we're hitting these plus 690s and stuff like that
[00:50:50] those are for fun the ones like this
[00:50:52] the more probable are the ones where we're really trying to make money
[00:50:54] and then my shot on target plays
[00:50:56] for later today and the ones that are going right now
[00:50:58] still no goals in the Dortmund game
[00:51:00] see I'm glad we stayed away from goals
[00:51:02] yeah it's a perfect example
[00:51:04] so those are where we get units
[00:51:06] when we hit the big ones like we did last week
[00:51:08] in the week prior
[00:51:10] and the week before that which was pretty sweet
[00:51:12] the plus 1400
[00:51:14] those are going to be great because they're going to make a bunch of money off of that one
[00:51:16] but it's the consistency in the smaller bets
[00:51:18] and the like plus 142
[00:51:20] or minus 142 is not sexy
[00:51:22] but it's a great bet I'm about it right now just to
[00:51:24] put my literal money
[00:51:26] where my literal nope
[00:51:28] put my money where I'm at this
[00:51:30] just very high
[00:51:32] it's the figurative you want to say figurative
[00:51:34] I'm just eating my money
[00:51:36] you don't know already
[00:51:38] I don't know
[00:51:40] the sporting cans
[00:51:42] the city versus Portland timbers game
[00:51:44] full crowd got a shot on target
[00:51:46] me?
[00:51:48] what's that?
[00:51:50] Nicholas full crowd has a shot on target
[00:51:52] but we do not have one
[00:51:54] not a single shot on target from stewart
[00:51:56] number three team in boondaz league we are
[00:51:58] unbelievable 60 minutes into this game
[00:52:00] and they do not have a shot on target so
[00:52:02] what are you going to do
[00:52:04] get some shots of target bitches
[00:52:06] I was just talking about
[00:52:08] so this is not today this is tomorrow
[00:52:10] sporting cans of city versus
[00:52:12] Portland that feels like a sneaky one
[00:52:14] as well
[00:52:16] both teams giving up some goals
[00:52:18] are we okay with reall
[00:52:20] Minnesota did we decide that before we move on
[00:52:22] did we did we did they're in there
[00:52:24] they're in there
[00:52:26] they're in there for me there okay I'm down with that
[00:52:28] the math says I think lake has the more dangerous
[00:52:30] offense I think Minnesota's playing
[00:52:32] at home Minnesota's got to get one
[00:52:34] I could see a rongo
[00:52:36] getting a goal and I can see
[00:52:38] pookie getting a goal and I can see
[00:52:40] ending one one I would love
[00:52:42] to see those two keep going to rongo has
[00:52:44] had if you call it a resurgence but he's
[00:52:46] he's been real fun to watch lately
[00:52:48] yeah he got you know he got
[00:52:50] basically you know
[00:52:52] moved out of lafc
[00:52:54] he was having a great career
[00:52:56] but you know you've got boonga
[00:52:58] and Bella in there and so
[00:53:00] he's gonna he's gonna step out behind
[00:53:02] those two and I'm glad
[00:53:04] to see that he's found a place where he gets
[00:53:06] to be the guy and there's really no question
[00:53:08] on who the guy is he's that and I like that for him
[00:53:10] and I like that for him
[00:53:12] who does Portland play you said that's tomorrow
[00:53:14] that's tomorrow that's tomorrow
[00:53:16] that's tomorrow they're playing supporting Kansas City
[00:53:18] and
[00:53:20] this is a this is a team that has
[00:53:22] um
[00:53:24] that has had a little bit of resurgence they didn't
[00:53:26] do great last year but this year
[00:53:28] doing doing better as is Portland
[00:53:30] so I feel like they're they're both
[00:53:32] teams on the rise
[00:53:34] Portland has put in 11 goals they've
[00:53:36] led in 11 as well
[00:53:38] um but I like how they play
[00:53:40] they're playing exciting soccer right now
[00:53:42] KC is 9 and 7 so you got
[00:53:44] 16 and 22
[00:53:46] that is
[00:53:48] in 12 matches you got 40 goals
[00:53:50] um I mean
[00:53:52] you're you're putting in some numbers
[00:53:54] I'm I'm done with adding that
[00:53:56] to the one and a half as well
[00:53:58] there you go
[00:54:00] 460 so the three five that's
[00:54:02] five legs at plus
[00:54:04] 150
[00:54:06] I don't think we add anymore
[00:54:08] I think we keep it at that but do you want to separate
[00:54:10] the days because like if you hit all four today
[00:54:12] you got to wait until tomorrow everybody will be all impatient
[00:54:14] oh do we just give them
[00:54:16] right that's more fun because you can post about it
[00:54:18] yeah maybe maybe we pull
[00:54:20] let's look one more time at these
[00:54:22] uh
[00:54:24] so I was worried because Portland obviously has the most
[00:54:26] given up I'm just staying in the western conference
[00:54:28] we got 10 out of Colorado 11 out of Portland
[00:54:30] 10 out of Dallas 13
[00:54:32] out of San Jose who does San Jose play again
[00:54:34] San Jose
[00:54:36] they played today play Austin Texas
[00:54:38] gross
[00:54:40] Austin has scored 7 allowed
[00:54:42] 9 Seattle
[00:54:44] just sucks fork total goals
[00:54:46] and you gotta go to the top galaxy vancouver
[00:54:48] and cougar has been putting them in but not allowing them
[00:54:50] they've only allowed 6 goals all season
[00:54:52] through 5 matches
[00:54:54] but we don't like that
[00:54:56] um Miami is just the fucking
[00:54:58] wagon here Billy
[00:55:00] a lot of the top teams in the east
[00:55:02] right now have not scored
[00:55:04] many goals 6 out of Toronto
[00:55:06] 9 out of Red Bulls I guess 9 and 6
[00:55:08] is fine but that's
[00:55:10] well below the pace that we were on last year
[00:55:12] well and also
[00:55:14] let's factor in about this about
[00:55:16] Toronto Toronto's doing well they're having a
[00:55:18] better season um they are
[00:55:20] playing against vancouver in vancouver
[00:55:22] without ensign
[00:55:24] so that's a factor
[00:55:26] ensign is their talisman
[00:55:28] he is their best player
[00:55:30] by far um
[00:55:32] so I would stay away from a lot
[00:55:34] of betting there I hope
[00:55:36] it's a great game just based on how Toronto has been playing
[00:55:38] um and again they
[00:55:40] have no Bradley so now I feel like I can root for them
[00:55:42] um and they have no
[00:55:44] Algidor so
[00:55:46] I want that to be a good game but I would stay really far
[00:55:48] away from betting they're down to Bradley's
[00:55:50] that's how I like a soccer team
[00:55:52] that's how I love a soccer team
[00:55:54] alright so I need to save some
[00:55:56] I'm putting out a little bit more
[00:55:58] than I should be right now
[00:56:00] um I think I focused a little too hard on these long shots
[00:56:02] uh full crug with your shot on target now
[00:56:04] we just need a little uh
[00:56:06] undef ok um
[00:56:08] so I'm great with the st. Louis
[00:56:10] Dallas LALA inter Miami
[00:56:12] Colorado minus 140
[00:56:14] absolutely smack that that can be two
[00:56:16] units for me that could be as many
[00:56:18] units as you want 100,000
[00:56:20] units I see these people on twitter doing like
[00:56:22] 20 unit whale never do that
[00:56:24] um put two units on that one
[00:56:26] um um um the
[00:56:28] math loves it and if you add Minnesota
[00:56:30] we also like you get plus 106
[00:56:32] also a great bet
[00:56:34] so those are going to be the smackers
[00:56:36] for this slate you got to follow
[00:56:38] you got to get in the discord
[00:56:40] if you want the rest of the stuff we've been
[00:56:42] just rambling for
[00:56:44] like what is this an hour now
[00:56:46] um it's a little bit more concise and there you don't have to listen to me
[00:56:48] talk you can just go into the channels check out the
[00:56:50] um
[00:56:52] every single play
[00:56:54] get it straight away don't have to listen to me
[00:56:56] that's the best part and then if you join
[00:56:58] right now click the link in my bio
[00:57:00] um or send me a dm whatever
[00:57:02] I don't care how you do it we'll get you 30 free days so
[00:57:04] you can try the whole thing get you some cash
[00:57:06] and then you'll want to stay forever because
[00:57:08] we win
[00:57:10] so one more time
[00:57:12] we got one and a half
[00:57:14] sorry go ahead we're up on the
[00:57:16] well so get in the discord
[00:57:18] uh become a
[00:57:20] paying member um and just make
[00:57:22] money that's basically what we're trying to do
[00:57:24] have a good time you don't have to bet
[00:57:26] large units um but if you
[00:57:28] bet them consistently we're
[00:57:30] giving you a really really nice return for your
[00:57:32] money better than the stock market
[00:57:34] and you can take that literally oh yes
[00:57:36] Tim literally Tim
[00:57:38] you can take it to the figurative bank
[00:57:40] not not the figurative
[00:57:42] bank but you can literally take it to your bank
[00:57:44] you can figuratively take it to the literal
[00:57:46] bank
[00:57:48] real quick we we have some shit out
[00:57:50] right now did someone just score
[00:57:52] yes
[00:57:54] shot on target that's our boy
[00:57:56] oh your assy wait
[00:57:58] did it do they take it away
[00:58:00] nope we're good dude love that okay
[00:58:02] so we just uh we just
[00:58:04] cached the one I need
[00:58:06] one more shot on target from
[00:58:08] undef to
[00:58:10] to cash out the early
[00:58:12] smacks so that's cool
[00:58:14] um I lost my train of thought
[00:58:16] but that doesn't matter oh yeah I was
[00:58:18] going to give you we have stuff live right now
[00:58:20] but up until yesterday
[00:58:22] the total was
[00:58:24] minus 0.5
[00:58:26] unit I am down one half of a
[00:58:28] unit this month no 0.25
[00:58:30] I'm down a quarter unit um if so
[00:58:32] if you're $100 better you're down 25 bucks in April
[00:58:34] and up 62
[00:58:36] and a half units since January
[00:58:38] 24th so
[00:58:40] uh yeah if you're a hundred
[00:58:42] better that's $6200
[00:58:44] you have that you didn't have so the
[00:58:46] $30 a month it starts to sound
[00:58:48] pretty affordable alright sweet this
[00:58:50] has been under construction for way too long
[00:58:52] um
[00:58:54] we hope that you cash with us and then
[00:58:56] I hope I see you in there and you get all these shot on target
[00:58:58] parley parley is what I'm about to smack to
[00:59:00] that's right okay bye